Poker 3: Raise of the Machines

get it like the terminator?

Last post I had a total profit of $108.86 over 13,809 hands, running at 15.77bb/100 hands.

The crushing has well and truly slowed down, a mixture of playing poorly/being lazy/playing when I shouldn’t be/running pretty poorly has shot my winrate down quite a sizeable amount. Over the last 3 days I’ve booked 4853 hands over 7 different sessions, averaging about 90 minutes each.

The bottom session was an experiment – I wanted to see how I’d play watching a movie, and it was at 1am. As you can see, it went terribly. I have to give my full attention to the tables or else I just turn on my bad auto pilot and make awful plays nonstop.

The other sessions were pretty normal, except for the top two, which were both super odd. The 1pm starting one began with me running ridiculously, Jamie Gold level of cards, for the first half an hour or so. I was only up like a buyin and a bit though, because noone was really spewy or anything. Then I lost 3 buyins super quickly, just bad beats and dumb bluffs, and I got a bit tilted and played poorly. I decided to stop, and all of a sudden on my final orbits on my tables, people decided to donate me 2 buyins so I could make a tiny tiny profit.

The most recent session was similar, I hovered between one buyin down and one buyin up, eventually I got to about $1 up near the end, hardly amazing, but I felt I played pretty poorly so not gonna complain. Then the same thing happened – one 80bb stack and one full buyin randomly hand me their stack in hands I played super standardly and they just called off with air. I’m a bit confused because I don’t know if I ‘should’ be winning this money, since I’m not playing good poker and instead just having spewtards throw their money at me with the nuts.

Nothing too surprising, maybe a little looser than normal, but my 3bet steal at 4.11% was my biggest winning session, maybe I should defend less? Or maybe I should just tighten a little bit, since I think I 3bet quite wide, and there are only a few regs I know have huge fold to 3bet stats.

I felt I played overall very poorly compared to last month, so maybe some hand analysis is needed.

Hand 1 –


I said I folded AA and he said that he “had outs”. Not sure how I can EVER call there though and be confident I’m far ahead. Oh well.

Hand 2 –

Re-watching this hand has me a bit confused. I have to ask myself, I guess, what can I ever beat on the river? Busted clubs (without the Tc), 9x, and that’s it? He’s never donking the river with some random 55/66/88, and 68 gets there on the river. Random two pairs like T9, T7 or 97 beat me too. I’m getting 2.4:1, so it’s 30% to call, but I feel like he is betting missed clubs and 9x practically never in this spot, so looking back at it I like the fold. Maybe it’s a little nitty though.

Hand 3 –

Another (puke) hand – when he shoves the river I’m trying to find a way to fold, but I never can, right? Getting 4.22:1 means I have to win this just over 20% of the time, and perhaps he’s shoving QJ/QT/Q9 in that spot, but he’d probably shove those on the turn after my c/r. Just a cooler I guess, but I still feel sick calling a raise on the river, since at NL5, it’s the nuts practically all of the time.

All the other hands I tagged under ‘review’ were pretty normal, probably just need to think more about bet sizing to induce calls/bluffs.

To close, then, my overall November stats were:

Obvious this was only 1 week of the month, so to be winning that well I’m obviously happy. If my bb/100 stays over 10 for December I’ll be super ecstatic and plan to move up to NL10 once I pay back the stake + some profit. Only 3 buyins under EV is good too, I’ve seen others charts and they’re, like, 30 buyins under EV and I don’t know how I’d be able to manage that.

Overall stats to the present: $116.48 profit over 18,662 hands, running at 12.48bb/100 hands. Quite a hit to my bb/100, but a profit is a profit.


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