In short, the crushing continues.
At the end of last post, I had a ~$94 profit, running at 15.61 bb/100 over 12,000 hands.
Last two days I’ve played relatively little poker, spent more time watching films/music/games, so played only ~1600 hands. Stats of:
28th session was pretty boring, ran pretty poor and dropped a buyin or two and worked it back up to a slight loss, nothing I did super wrong or super right I feel, just a pretty standard session.
Todays (29th) session was pretty ridiculous – people were donating their money to me, and I was making pretty normal plays and people never seemed to believe me, and kept paying off my thin value bets and always folded to my bluffs and semi-bluffs. That 3.5 buyin profit should have been a lot, lot higher, but I ran in to some coolers which changed my (at that time) $22 profit to an $8 profit in the space of three hands. Regardless, I powered through and worked it back up to a solid 37.25 bb/100 session.
Preflop stats are pretty much spot on with my averages, so nothing to say there. Maybe I’m still calling a little loose from the bb/sb, but it generally is against fish with good postflop hands.
The big dip here in my hands played/bb won graph was thanks to 2 hands, these:
This fish had been running something absurd like 59/8/2 over ~100 hands, so I should’ve just seen it coming. The context, though, was the previous hand, where he limped A4s, I raised 55, and he called and check the A94 flop, I checked back, and binked a 5 on the turn. He bet, I raised, he called. River he c/c my pretty sizable bet. Then he started complaining and was like “why don’t you raise???” – then as he types it he raises here, so I 3bet with my KK super happy, and he just shoves. I was tempted to fold, since his likely hand range here is only ever AA and a tiny percent of the time KK and AKs, but given the context I opted to call because he felt super spewy and I had been 3betting a LOT this session. In hindsight, an easy fold, but oh well.
On the flop I’m pretty happy with my hand, and on the turn I’m slightly less happy but still happy. His raise here was giving me 2.91:1, so I’d need to win the pot slightly less than 30% of the time. Against his exact hand, I’m a 25-75 dog, so it’s the wrong play, but against a range of some overpairs and two pairs and sets and stuff, I’m a 38-62 dog, so it would be correct to call. I’m not sure if this is one of those spots where they’re probably only making a play with a strong hand, either way, just a shitty spot and happened exactly after hand 1 on another table.
3bet and bink trips, wee. Should I check the river to try and induce a bluff? I felt like maybe my hand looked super weak after I check the turn on such a wet board, but his check back maybe signals he’s really as weak as I’m pretending to be. I guess a check on the river is the right play so he can bluff with his missed flush draws or overcards, but I guess I hoped he had AK and would call a bet there.
Can I ever fold the turn here? Getting 4:1 so I only need to be winning 20% of the time, and I feel like I am even though this turn shove seems super super strong – if he has AK he’s probably gonna 3bet preflop, K9 is possible since there were good odds preflop, but more likely is probably Qxcc for a flushdraw+pair, or some two pair hand, or 89 for a straight of course, probably even more likely. Even then, I’m still getting the right price to call even vs a straight, but against a wider range of flush draws and two pairs and stuff, I’m a slight favourite. Pretty awful play by him I think, we ran it twice and chopped when he binked a club on the river on the first run.
Pretty happy overall with how I played today, some gross spots but some pretty good spots too. Total profit over the last two days of $14.48 (2.896 buyins), can’t complain.
Graph update: Slight increase to bb/100, and a nice increase to total winnigs.