paykah 1 – November 19-27

So so so, let’s begin.

Starting roll was $100 – a stake from a friend. My end goal is to be rolled for NL100 ($2000+) and have a good winrate at NL50 and then obviously NL100. This post is essentially just going to be the starting point, I’ve got a small but decentish sample size of hands and statistics to look at and think about as I move forward. All these questions I pose are just questions to myself, I don’t expect anyone to read this.

The huge bulk (~95%) of the 12,000 hands I’ve played so far at NL5 6max have been in the last 7-8 days, I was donking around at NL2 and NL5 full ring trying to remember how to play this new Hearthstone patch (haha lol). I was up like 10 buyins at NL2 (stupidly boring and easy), which then buffered my 4 buyin loss at NL5, causing me to remember I hate full ring and move back to 6 max.

So my stats over this last week and a bit are:

For a total of 12,093 hands and an average of 412.73 per hour. That one red line shows a losing day (boo), for this in $ terms:


So that’s ~2 buyins (~$9.50) per day, averaging at 15.61 bb/100, which is an absurdly high bb/100 rate and only attainable at the micro levels, but even then, I’m unsure if something as high as 15bb/100 is sustainable, or if I’m going to slow down or take some bad sessions.

Overall my stats are pretty good I think, especially since I just started playing again. Then again, it is NL5 and people are generally beyond horrible, and will hand you their money if you just play with some common sense and are able to identify trends in betting patterns and postflop lines.

Preflop seems pretty normal for a 6 max table:


The top session is an outlier, in that it was only 200 hands, so the higher VPIP/PFR isn’t too important. I’ve noticed a lot of the other regulars that don’t suck have stats more around 20/15/4 – so I’m a bit looser, and generally a bit more spewy against regs, since they tend to fold to 2nd barrels a lot more. Sometimes I have cbet%s of <30, when I never cbet vs fish because they never fold to cbets, so I only cbet with good equity.

Still, overall, I’m happy with my winrate, and should just focus now on putting in volume and continue playing the way I am and think through tough decisions a bit more, and review them when they come up.

Which is what I’m gonna do now.

Hand 1 –

The UTG raise is pretty bad probably, but obviously I hit two pair on a draw heavy board, so I’m happy and gonna bet. The short stack shoves over me, and I can’t re-raise because of his tiny raise amount. The turn is obviously where I am concerned, it fills JT, flush draws, KQ, and of course I’m still dead vs sets or higher two pairs. Is c/f the only line? Is b/f too weak? I’m not sure, obviously I played perfectly since I put money in when I was ahead and folded when I was behind, but it is a bit of an awkard hand.

Hand 2 –

This hand is a bit more about bet sizing on the river. I didn’t want to c/r the flop despite probably being a huge favourite against just about any non-J hand because I’ve found at these limits, a c/r on paired flops sends a terrifying message to the opponent and they fold unless they have the nuts (or AA, obv the nuts 100% of the time).

Anyway – the river. Half pot sized bets are pretty much obvious value bets, so thinking through his range (25/25/25 over 8 hands, so useless stats) that’s going to fire two large bullets on that board, it’s probably a hand like AK/AQ/AT with a club, maybe sometimes A9/T9/89 or some other 9x hand, and perhaps TT making a thin value bet on the turn. Jx is possible, but obviously he didn’t have one (unless he did and he made a hero fold). So given that, is half the pot too obvious of a value bet? I can’t ever c/r because he’s never calling with just Jx, and a smaller flush probably wouldn’t raise. I have no idea if I should have bet smaller or bigger, but I’m pretty sure half pot was bad.

Hand 3 –

Plenty of these crazy spewtards at micros – I 3bet AKo from the BB and get called by a guy 150bb deep and with a 40% VPIP over a tiny sample. Preflop and flop is normal, but on the turn I decide to check, for a reason I’m not totally sure of, maybe I wanted to keep the pot controllable on a pretty dangerous board for my hand – he can easily call here with AJ, AQ, KT, QJ, and obviously 33 or even sometimes a random A3s. I’m expecting him to check back lots here with bad aces or jacks, and then I can put a value bet on the river where he’s going to do that thing that people at the micros do where they percieve a check as weakness and will call down with 3rd pair, because obviously if I check on any street I have nothing.

Then he shoves for 1.8ish times the pot – am I ever ahead here? Putting it in to Pokerstove (sets, two pairs, pair+broadway draws, random Ax etc) sees me at 62% equity, but since I have to call ~70bb to win the 50bb in the pot, I’m not getting a good price and I rarely see him bluffing here.

Hand 4 –

This hand I must have just had some sick read, I guess I tagged it as ‘good hand’ in PT4. Probably a losing play in the long run, but I felt good about making the right play.

Hand 5 –

Table about to break, so only 3 people left. Is this a fold preflop? His 5betting range is obviously super narrow, but I’m getting 4.18:1 on a call here, and we still have ~80 bb behind, so if I flop a J and he has QQ+ and we get it all in, obviously I’m loving it. I flop an overpair and a gutshot and backdoor hearts, and he shoves. Here I can just fold but for some reason I prayed he had AK and I called. Looking back obviously this is bad, the hugely likely hand he has is AA or KK, which I’m a huge dog against, so even despite almost getting the right odds (Pokerstove says I’d be a slight favourite against QQ+,AQs+,AQo+ as his range, but I even doubt he’s 5 betting AQo, even 3 handed).

The math seems to say this isn’t tooooooo terrible of a call, but I feel like this is one of those spots that math is trumped by experience.

Hand 6 –

Only 4 handed this time, and I open JThh and get 3bet by a guy that had been 3betting pretty liberally. We’re both 120+ bb deep, so I choose to call with a good hand. I flop top pair and a gutshot, so I’m liking my hand. He checks, which I should’ve read as odd, because he had a 100% cbet rate. Still, he could have just 3bet with air or some picture cards and is going to give up and try to get to showdown as cheap as possible. I bet a pretty normal I think 65ish% of the pot, and he raises, in this exact spot I’m 35% to win, and I’m getting 33% on a call, so logic says I should call and see what the turn brings. Against a pretty wide range of 99+, AT+, KJ+ and QJ+, I’m a 71% favourite, but like the last hand I think this just felt wrong, as soon as I bet I was worried for some reason. So I shove and he calls, I’m not thrilled with this hand but in hindsight I don’t think I played it too terribly.

Okay and to close heres my graph so far, running only 1 buyin under EV which is really great, was even running above EV. The big drop just before 8500 hands was pretty gross, losing 4 buyins in the space of a few hundred hands to random two pairs being hit on the river and random backdoor flushes and losing QQ vs JJ and AA vs KK, but oh well, not like I’m running bad.

My Currency Won in USD over Hands Played for (PokerStars) frequency17

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